M&A Uptick Should Signal Broader Recovery in 2010
The Wall Street Journal reports that Exxon-Mobil’s recent $31 billion purchase of natural gas exploration firm XTO Energy confirms a recovery of merger and acquisition activity over the past 2 months. It reports that November and December had the most M&A activity since the summer of 2008, with values 4 times greater than a year ago. Also leading this charge were Warren Buffet’s largest ever $26 billion investment in the railroad industry, and the $4.6 billion merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker. November alone saw the announcement of 41 U.S. deals worth a combined total of approximately $47.5 billion, benefiting mostly large Wall Street banks and boutique financial firms. Sources within the chemical industry also expect a 2010 rally in the number of deals.
Many experts believe these increases in M&A activity signal good news for the health of the broader economy in 2010. Indeed, the recent surge seems to be the result of increased access to capital markets, the stagnation of which has been cited repeatedly as the cause of the continued lagging of a broader recovery. Accompanying these positive indicators are the apparent stabilizing of economies world-wide, financing becoming more available in the broader spectrum, and the narrowing of the gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers. Consistently, a large regional bank representative recently said at a lunch meeting that their bankers have been directed to increase lending dramatically in 2010 as underwriters loosen standards for loan approval.
Until recently, any positive indicators of recovery always have seemed to accompany at least as many negative ones. As 2009 ends, however, the negative indicators appear to be waning strongly in favor of the positive. Also, while many experts claim, perhaps too definitively, that this recession is over, others hinge their disagreement mostly on lagging unemployment data. Yet unemployment typically is the last area to improve after a recession as companies tend to wait until they clearly are understaffed before resuming hiring. Moreover, early 2010 should provide great opportunities for companies to contact their previously obstinate bankers again to seek (or refinance) lines of credit and other financing.
Last 5 posts by Steven Marderosian
- GUN DEBATE MISFIRES - October 8th, 2009
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- Employers’ ADEA Win Likely Will Be Short-Lived - June 30th, 2009